TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're destroying huge amounts of capital, and investors are sick of it.
No big mergers and acquisitions (although my fingers are crossed about Altria (NYSE: MO) (Cramer's Take), because MO needs growth and UST's (NYSE: UST) (Cramer's Take) really good). No initial public offerings of any consequence since Visa (NYSE: V) (Cramer's Take) despite a huge queue of private-to-go-public deals. No private-equity deals despite incredibly low valuations, valuations so minuscule that deals would have been done at gigantic premiums from here and still be much less expensive than they were. No threatening stakes by swashbuckling hedge funds. No new huge buybacks or dividend boosts, save CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) (Cramer's Take), not that anyone cared about that one.
No nothin'.
It is an amazing time. It is the first week of an admittedly almost always bad month, but that's almost always because we are up going into September and funds want to lock in good gains.
U.S. stock futures are pointing to further declines following a rough session where the Dow plunged 344 points and ahead of the jobs report mostly feared to show weakness in the labor market. Non-farm payroll is expected to show a job loss of 75,000 but the unemployment remain unchanged. Meanwhile, international markets sank following U.S. markets. Also affecting mood this morning is Goldman's call to sell Merrill Lynch.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) to Sell from Neutral and added the firm to its conviction sell list. MER stock is plunging 6.6% in pre-market trading. Goldman said valuation and the likelihood of further write-downs are the reasons. Goldman also lowered its third-quarter EPS forecast to a loss of $5.75 a share.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares are shooting up 26% in pre-market trading after Samsung Electronics said it may buy the flash memory maker. There are no concrete announcements or details as to price yet.
And at Boeing (NYSE: BA), the company continues to negotiate with labor leaders to avert an expensive strike it cannot afford. Negotiators and mediators are trying to work to avert the strike voted for by the union during the 48 hour extension.
Stock futures were lower this morning as oil rose back above $110 a barrel and investors awaited a barrage of economic data due today including weekly oil inventories. Other economic indicators include data on employment, manufacturing and productivity. Also, retailers will be announcing August same-store sales. Overall, sales are expected to rise 2%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are deciding their interest rate policy today, where the ECB could tighten.
The first of the retailers has already reported August sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said sales increased 3% in August, beating its forecast. Seems discounts drew shoppers. WMT shares are up over 1% in pre-market.
Unfortunately for Boeing (NYSE: BA), The International Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, which represents nearly 27,000 machinists, voted to strike as they rejected Boeing's contract offer. The union, however, postponed the strike by 48 hours as the two parties go to mediation. Boeing will likely suffer from a strike at a time it's struggling to stand by its Dreamliner obligations. BA stock is down over 1% in pre-market.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) shares stand to rise after it finally reached an agreement with its billionaire Russian partners have over TNK-BP. While BP remains with a 50% holding in the venture, it has made many concessions, including agreeing to have the CEO Dudley leave. Shares are up over 2% in pre-market.
Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 3G continues to sell like gangbusters even with multiple issues and some furious customers. But, if Apple really is bent on selling over 10 million of the now-iconic, do-everything handset, it may need to beef up its sales as best it can. Enter China Mobile.
That's right -- the wireless company that has more subscribers than there are U.S. citizens may be selling the iPhone 3G soon, according to reports. And we're not talking gray market handsets, but an actual partnership between Apple and China Mobile. Talks between the two companies, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, are in "final stages."
China Mobile CEO Wang Jianzhou stated this week at the ITU Telecom Asia 2008 exhibition in Bangkok that "Steve Jobs and I hope the iPhone will enter China as soon as possible ... we are discussing this issue, but we do not have an agreement." If Apple can get its do-everything handset into China Mobile, we've not seen anything yet in terms of iPhone 3G sales.
IPod sales may be on the decline in the near future -- but can the iPhone 3G make up for that? We'll see.
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) has offered [subscription required] to acquire Beijing-based China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd, China's number one 100% juice and nectar company. The deal, which would be the second largest in Coke's history (behind Vitamin Water), would require the approval of Chinese regulators.
Coke says the deal would be accretive to earnings in third year -- but of course there are lies, damn lies, and forward-looking statements. The deal represents a continuation of Coke's efforts to diversify away from the declining soft drink industry and into higher-priced, more natural beverages.
The question is whether Coke will be able to add meaningfully to the value of these brands with its own marketing and distribution power. If Coke is just pumping up its sales by adding brands at high prices, that's probably not a good strategy for long-term shareholder value. Very few companies have been able to create such value through acquisitions, and Coke's shopping spree should be seen as a sign of increasing weakness in the company's current businesses.
Stock futures were lower this morning as investors digested the decline in commodity prices and awaited a slew of economic readings. Data on employment, manufacturing and auto sales will be reported during the morning and throughout the day. At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which gives an overall picture on the economy will be released.
Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) said it is offering $2.4 billion for China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd., triple Huiyuan's market value. This is Coke's largest acquisition by value to date in China and gives the company a leg in the fast-growing and dynamic Chinese juice market. Coke also said that it expects to buy back a total of $1 billion of its stock for the full year. The Boeing Co.'s (NYSE: BA) workers are prepared to vote Wednesday. Union members are scheduled to cast two ballots: one regarding Boeing's latest offer, which union leaders are recommending to reject, and another on whether to begin a strike. Results of the vote are expected Wednesday night.
More information is coming out regarding Korea Development Bank interest in Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH). According to reports in The Chosun Ilbo, South Korea's largest mass-circulation daily, state-owned KDB has made a proposal to acquire 25% of U.S. Lehman for as much as 6 trillion won ($5.3 billion). HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) and an unnamed Chinese bank are said to be vying with the KDB for the Lehman stake.
General Electric (NYSE: GE - option chain) shares are soaring higher today due to a number of factors such as sinking oil futures, but also on comments from Vivendi CEO Jean-Bernard Levy. Levy said in an interview with the Financial Times that he has heard GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt say several times both privately and publicly that GE has no intention of selling its 80% of NBC Universal. Levy may have more information that the average investor on this matter since Vivendi owns the remaining 20% of NBC. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NBC.
GE opened this morning at $28.54. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.53 and a high of $29.10. As of 12:25, GE is trading at $29.10, up $0.94 (3.4%). The chart for GE looks bullish and S&P gives GE a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $24 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just three and a half months as long as GE is above $24 at December expiration. GE would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Sheldon suggested the other day that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) should split off its web search and services arm so that it could fit better with a possible Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) combination. Instead of entertaining that notion, Microsoft still has some cash to spend to ensure, for now at least, it still has a growing presence in the web search and e-commerce arena.
To that end, the company announced this morning that it will spend $486 million to purchaseGreenfield Online, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRVY) as it swiped an earlier takeover offer from the Quadrangle Group with its $15.50 per share offer. Microsoft's offer of $17.50 per share is a 10% premium over Greenfield's closing price this past Monday, when the offer was received without Greenfield knowing the origin. That is, until today.
Microsoft wants control of www.ciao.com, one of Europe's leading price comparison shopping search engines. Does Microsoft really think owning a leading consumer review and price shopping search engine will bolster its Microsoft Live platform? Since it couldn't compete in the U.S. against Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), perhaps Microsoft is turning to international purchases as a second competitive act. Greenfield also has an "internet survey solutions" division that Microsoft will sell to an undisclosed buyer.
Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) seems to be on the mend from a perception standpoint. CEO Dan Hesse is still running television advertisements with his direct email address and a personal message to potential Sprint subscribers. The cellular carrier has a refined, electric image and has a decent competitor to Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone. Is it still in bad financial shape? That answer would be yes, as it continues to lose customers every single quarter.
While a Sprint/T-Mobile partnership was rumored this summer, the technology used between the two companies is incompatible. From a layman's perspective, it's precisely the problem that doomed the Sprint acquisition of Nextel. To this day, the brands still operate independently in many ways. That's been a death knell for the company, while larger competitor AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) perfectly merged its network with the now-gone Cingular over a few years. Still, would T-Mobile really want to team up with Sprint? Only if Sprint jettisons the Nextel brand and network sometime in 2008.
Analyst Christopher Larsen with Credit Suisse makes a decent argument for Sprint and Nextel parting ways as soon as possible, citing the recent $3 billion fund raiser Sprint announced. Could an impending corporate divorce be in the works? Sprint has already written off tens of billions in the bungled Nextel merger, but it could raise over $7.5 billion by selling Nextel.
Still, with the third- and fourth-largest wireless players (Sprint and T-Mobile, respectively) ripe for consolidation, combining two very different networks better work if there's even a hint of a future combination between the two. But right now, that may be the only choice: Verizon Wireless and AT&T are kicking butt in the wireless market in the U.S.
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning on fear Tropical Storm Gustav's path may pose a threat to refinery activity along the Gulf of Mexico coastline and some would have to shut down. Indeed, oil prices rose to above $117 a barrel Wednesday. Also in focus today is the upcoming durable goods order to be reported before the opening bell. Meanwhile, the FDIC is considering borrowing funds from the Treasury, amid an expected wave of bank failures. Nine banks have failed so far this year, and the number of troubled U.S. banks rose 30% to 117 in the second quarter. [Update: Futures turned positive after durable goods unexpectedly gained.]
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), which stocks jumped big Tuesday, both had several ratings cut by Standard & Poor's. Still, both stocks seem to continue their climb in premarket with Fannie shares up 7.5% and Freddie's up 10%. At least two analysts, from Citigroup and Goldman said Tuesday the situation isn't as bad as it may seem.
From financials to toys: A federal jury awarded Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) $100 million in damages on Tuesday in a federal copyright lawsuit against MGA Entertainment Inc., the maker of the saucy Bratz dolls.
Moving to pharmaceuticals, Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) shares are down 10% and 1% respectively in premarket trading after four more patients taking their Byetta diabetes medication have died. Baird downgraded Amylin from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target from $37 to $27. Soleil downgraded AMLN from Hold to Sell.
Shares of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) are up about 3% today after the company disclosed that it has entered into a confidentiality agreement with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), in a sign that a deal may get done after all. Last week, Electronic Arts let its tender offer expire but said that it would listen to a confidential presentation on the company's operations.
In an 8-K filed with the SEC yesterday, Electronic Arts disclosed the confidentiality agreement and added that its terms prohibit the company from commenting publicly on the negotiations until a deal is reached or discussions are terminated.
It's hard to know what to make of this. By getting Electronic Arts to sign a confidentiality agreement, Take-Two has put an end to the tit-for-tat soap opera aspect of this takeover battle. Whether they're serious about getting a deal done remains to be seen. Given Take-Two's track record of filibustering and questionable governance, I'm skeptical. At this point, investors should be evaluating shares of Take-Two Interactive based on its prospects as a stand-alone business, not the chances of a deal that Take-Two's board has demonstrated a lack of enthusiasm about.
Temasek Holdings is one of Singapore's sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), managing $130 billion. Over the past few years, the fund has been diversifying into emerging markets as well as developed economies.
In fact, Temasek was one of the early investors in some major U.S. financial institutions. It has invested $5 billion in Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) back in December.
While Temasek hasn't tracked well, SWFs focus on the long term. Temasek still appears to be bullish on U.S. financial services companies as the portfolio concentration is a whopping 40%. And there are even rumors that Temasek may invest in Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH).
According to its annual report, Tamasek reported a $12.8 billion net profit for the past year as of the end of March. Keep in mind that the fund has engaged in a variety of asset sales.
Going forward, Tamasek is glum on its forecast, though. Basically, the fund thinks that the credit crunch will last another two years – which is certainly depressing.
In India, the growth of the information technology (IT) industry has been stunning. For the most part, the strategy has been to focus on internal growth. However, this may be changing; that is, expect more M&A.
In a way, the Indian IT service providers are victims of their own success. For example, wages are skyrocketing and it's getting tougher to find quality consultants.
With the Axon deal, Infosys will add about 2,000 consultants who specialize in the complex work of SAP (NYSE: SAP) implementations -- projects that can certainly generate juicy fees. Infosys will also get a stronger platform in Europe. Last year, Axon generated $378.3 million in revenues, with $37.4 million in profits.
According to Murray Beach, managing Managing Director of TM Capital:
"This transaction is an impressive step for Infosys. Many of the leading offshore services firms have talked about climbing up the value chain of services offerings and improving on-site customer presence, but none have completed a deal of such magnitude to back up their rhetoric. We expect the acquisition of Axon to mark the first of many acquisitions by the leading Indian offshore players of traditional on-site strategic and technology consulting companies in the US and Europe."
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday. Following Monday's broad sell-off and volatile session, which was also marked by low volume, today might not be different -- volatile and low volume. Several reports are in focus today, specifically some housing data that could shine more light on the sector, and consumer confidence, which could also move stocks. Meantime, oil prices declined and the dollar strengthened against major currencies.
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) shares are down over 3% in premarket trading after the mining giant reported fiscal first-half profit more than doubled. RTP's acquisition of Alcan and soaring commodity prices helped Rio achieve the results. RTP shares have been declining due to worldwide slower growth.
Meanwhile, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) shares were 2.4% higher in after-hours after it announced a plan to buy back up to $5 billion of stock.
Staying with share buybacks, Coach (NYSE: COH) are also 1.7% higher in premarket trading after announcing a buyback program of up to $1 billion, which follows the completion of a similar repurchase.
And of course, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH). Shares of the embattled banker are rising this morning following speculation that Kohlberg Kravis Roberts may be interested in buying Neuberger Berman, according to CNBC, while Blackstone Group backed away.
Famed studio MGM, which is owned by a bunch of companies including Texas Pacific Group, Providence Equity Partner, Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Comcast (NYSE: CMCSA), is considering a public offering as it looks to deal with its $3.1 billion debt load. The company has hired Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to explore options for a way out of the 2005 buyout that left the company over-leveraged.
Studios have slowed production because of the credit crunch that is making financing films harder than it's been in a long time.
Other possible alternatives include a bond offering or some other form of debt refinancing, but the company says it's not for sale, although it remains coy on that topic, saying that that "there is no 'asking price' for the company."
Is that a veiled invitation for bids? Sounds like it. But in this environment, there might not be many takers. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) made an unsuccessful bid back in 2004, but most the other interested parties ended up walking away with various sized stakes in the company.