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An online failure for NBC at the Olympics

The Olympics were supposed to be NBC's big profit engine for this year. The unit has been something of a disappointment to parent General Electric (NYSE: GE), but one event could have changed that.

Indeed, NBC's ratings for its Olympic programming seem to have been outstanding and its broadcast revenues for the event may set a record for TV ad income for sports programming.

But internet revenue for NBC's coverage may be remarkably small. According to The Wall Street Journal, "NBCOlympics.com will generate just $5.75 million in video-ad revenue from the Games, according to estimates from research firm eMarketer Inc." Some of the disappointing numbers could come from the decision to run only a modest amount of coverage on the website, but the problem may by much greater than that.

Web video may be a bust, at least from a revenue standpoint. There is more and more evidence that points in that direction. YouTube has certainly been a huge disappointment for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). Viacom has struggled with making big money off the online version of MTV. Video has done very little to bring extra revenue to Facebook and MySpace.

The problem with selling video commercials on the internet could be that consumers have come to expect that everything online is free. Banner ads and search ads are easy to avoid as there is nothing active or intrusive about them. Video ads often start to play whether the person online wants to see them or not. That may lead to a rejection of the experience altogether.

Making cash on web video may never work. The media companies just don't want to admit it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

American Apparel scoops up ads on Facebook and MySpace

To say that American Apparel (AMEX: APP) is a unique company is like saying that Tiger Woods is a talented athlete: you have a CEO who receives oral sex from employees during interviews, tells reporters that his company's CFO is a "complete loser," and the company has taken out ads promoting its controversial views on immigrations laws. Then, just for fun, the company is being sued by Woody Allen.

But when you get past all the weirdness, you have a company that reported comparable store sales growth of 25% for July, in one of the toughest environments for retailers in recent memory.

Portfolio reports that American Apparel is making significant investments in advertising on MySpace and Facebook -- social networking sites that target the young, hip demographic that is the company's stronghold. According to comScore's data for April, American Apparel placed 483 million internet display ads -- more than apparel giant Nike!

Many companies have been wary of social networking sites as outlets for ads because, as cool as the users might be, they also tend to be broke. But it's hard to argue with 25% same store sales growth.

Shares of American Apparel are down more than 50% from where they traded as recently as December -- it seems that the market just doesn't have an appetite for a hot retail play right now.

Once you strip the kinkiness out of the American Apparel story, the stock looks cheap -- the question is, how much of the market's skepticism is justified?

News Corp. (NWS) may not be a buy right now

News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), a competitor of media entities such as Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA) CBS (NYSE: CBS), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, reported its Q4 and full-year numbers on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the stock received an after-hours yawn from investors. The share price didn't move much at all, about a nickel (the stock was up almost 5% on the day, however). The stats seemed pretty good in an overall sense, but they weren't overly compelling either, and I'm not sure I'd want to enter a position in News Corp. at the moment due to questions about the softening advertising market for television stations. But let's look at the data.

For the quarter, revenues increased over 16% and earnings per diluted share jumped over 50% to $0.43. There were, however, some asset gains thrown into that number. News Corp. likes to focus on operating income, and that metric grew 21% in Q4. Every operating segment, except for television, saw an increase in its profits. For the full year, revenues increased 15% and earnings per diluted share soared almost 68% to $1.81. Again, operating income gives a better account of performance due to the asset transactions affecting the bottom line, and here we see the growth is closer to 21%. For the full year, every operating segment saw growth.

News Corp.'s studio and cable divisions are doing well, and like I said, in a general sense, this was a good report. Plus, Fox Interactive Media saw its top line expand by well over 50%, driven by MySpace. But Rupert Murdoch has expressed some caution in terms of growth going forward. According to this article, he sees growth ahead, but it won't be of the stellar variety. And I'll add that operational cash flow for the year was down over 4%. I'd rather see that metric rise on a twelve-month basis. News Corp.'s shares seem cheap to me, but I don't feel compelled at this point to start a position. Given the current economic climate, I'd rather sit on the sidelines and wait for some more data.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Is eBay's evolving business model being eclipsed by local competition?

When eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) recently began focusing on being more of a retail storefront than an online auction site, many saw it as the nail in the coffin of what was once an internet darling. Higher fees, angry sellers and a multitude of changes at eBay in recent years have many writing the company off as progress peaked in 2004 and has been falling ever since. Even former CEO Meg Whitman did not waste a chance on going over her self-imposed 10-year stint as the company's leader, having now left the company as of last year.

To add insult to injury, free classified listings are popping up all over the web to take over for what made eBay so powerful: connecting buyers and sellers for a transaction outside of the normal retail landscape. This grassroots commerce is what made eBay what it is. Its customers -- buyers and sellers -- did not want a normal retail transaction; they wanted a flea market and that is what eBay became. Except, that "flea" became an 800-pound gorilla.

Free classified providers like Oodle are winning business all over the web for niche audiences like those at MySpace.com and Walmart.com, two of Oodle's larger customers. Even localized free classified websites like Oklahoma City's OK4Free.com are getting in on the action. These are free websites to list items on -- unlike eBay. And they could be eating eBay's lunch soon if not already. To some who think eBay is turning into an also-ran in the online classified business, the welcome (albeit, smaller) competition is a good thing. Now, if someone could build a directory of all these free classified sites, customer defection from eBay could be quite a bit more rapid.

Facebook set for upgrade in competition with MySpace

The Associated Press reported Monday that popular online communications website Facebook is set for a new upgrade and redesign to allow users to add items on "Walls" more easily, while the "Wall" feature will incorporate functions previously found in "Mini-Feed's." Facebook is currently in heavy competition with News Corp. (NYSE: NWS)'s MySpace networking site as both "vie to become the central hub of online communications" by removing "clutter" and making the sites easier the navigate.

Part of the update comes as users have made less and less drastic changes to their profiles, instead adding single images or changing their statuses. Facebook is also aiming to reduce the size of profiles loaded with various applications that also appear on users "Mini-Feeds" and "Walls". Users will also be able to delete items from those functions, but no new information about online behavior previously unavailable will suddenly appear, according to Facebook developers and executives.

Continue reading Facebook set for upgrade in competition with MySpace

YouTube was costly -- has it become RubeTube?

This past holiday weekend my colleague Doug McIntyre gave support to a blog I wrote in May 2007 when he posted Google (GOOG): The Failure Of YouTube. In my rant I gave a detailed analysis outlining how Google had overpaid for YouTube by a fantastic amount.

In the story Doug quotes projections that 2008 revenue generated by Google might gross $200 million from YouTube. That's revenue, not profit. A 20% profit would be $40 million if that was possible. In the article I wrote: How can I say Google overpaid for YouTube? I stated the case in plain English why the YouTube investment would have to earn $300 million (net, not gross) minimum, in its first year not to be dillutive.

They missed the target by a mile. They will continue to miss the target and I do not expect it to ever justify the cost. Just because Google has lots of cash slushing around does not mean they have money to waste.

Continue reading YouTube was costly -- has it become RubeTube?

Are News Corp. and Viacom cheap?

Have you checked News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) stock price lately? It's pretty close to the 52-week low. Last Thursday, before the Fourth of July holiday began, News Corp.'s shares closed at $14.76. The 52-week low is $14.58, and the 52-week high is $24.95. As can be seen, it's had quite a fall. And what about competitor Viacom (NYSE: VIA)? The company's stock closed on Thursday with a price of $29.70. That was, in fact, the 52-week low. The 52-week high for Viacom is $44.95. Again, a pretty big dive.

Is it time to enter these two names? From a valuation perspective, considering their growth prospects, the stock prices do make one pause for consideration. They seem cheaper than colleagues Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) from certain angles, although the latter two media businesses do have higher dividend yields. But with the big decline in the stock prices, traders certainly have to be looking at them as perhaps candidates for a bounce-back in the second half of the year, especially if the oil situation improves.

I think that's the big problem here. With oil and financials acting in negative ways for the economy, the entire market is one huge growling bear in a bad mood. And that has made me very reticent about initiating a trading position in either News Corp. or Viacom, though I really, really am interested in doing so. I think value trades like this might very well simply be tests of patience at this point. I sense that both these stocks will be higher by the end of the year, but so what? These stocks will probably merely move along with the rest of the major averages, and that movement could be in the downward direction. And News Corp. has been having issues with MySpace.

Continue reading Are News Corp. and Viacom cheap?

LinkedIn connects with $53 million in venture capital

I recently saw a presentation from Dan Nye, who is the CEO of LinkedIn. Of course, all the metrics were spiking. Then again, LinkedIn is the place for professionals to connect.

So, this week the firm has snagged $53 million in venture capital. The investors include Bain Capital Ventures, Sequoia Capital, Greylock Partners, and Bessemer Ventures. As a sign of their optimism, the valuation of the investment came to around $1 billion.

While Facebook and MySpace get lots of buzz, I think LinkedIn is a more interesting play. Basically, the company is leveraging user-generated content to build an immensely valuable database. For example, if an advertiser wants to target someone located in California that is interested in Linux systems, you will definitely get some hits. This is critically important. After all, many other social networks have a tough time monetizing things.

Continue reading LinkedIn connects with $53 million in venture capital

Will MySpace help or hurt News Corp. over the long haul?

I read an interesting article over at CNBC about News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace asset. It seems that the social-networking site wants to do something about the fact that it won't succeed in booking $1 billion in net sales before the conclusion of the conglomerate's fiscal year. MySpace will undergo an aesthetic overhaul to make the site more appealing. As it is now, many users might find the site too busy and not so friendly in terms of navigation. The changes will take place over time, beginning this week and concluding in the fall.

The question on my mind now is, did News Corp. really need MySpace? Sure, the site has a heck of a lot of registered users, well over 100 million worldwide, but now people are wondering how effectively these users can be exploited in terms of generating economic value. The article mentioned the disappointing results so far from an advertising deal made with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) back in 2006, one which had a $900 million figure attached to it.

The problem here for News Corp. is that users are fickle and may eventually find another MySpace in the future (obviously, Facebook is an example of how social networking continues to evolve and how any big brand in this arena can be challenged at any time). That wouldn't be good for long-term growth. Another problem cited is the fact that active MySpace users just want to socialize with their friends and/or network; they don't care about the ads. There's a lot of truth to this claim, and it's a huge issue going forward.

Continue reading Will MySpace help or hurt News Corp. over the long haul?

Warner Music Group pulls music from Last.fm

Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) has asked CBS Corporation's (NYSE: CBS) free on-demand music streaming service Last.fm to remove the label's music from the site "in an apparent dispute over compensation rates." Billboard reports that CBS is "currently negotiating a new agreement with Warner Music Group and are working hard to built the most comprehensive music service on the Web." Music from Universal Music Group, Sony BMG Music Entertainment, EMI Group, and various independent labels remains on Last.fm, and the site's Internet radio service still offers songs from WMG artists.

CBS purchased British-based Last.fm a year ago for $280 million, and WMG was the first major label to sign with Last.fm in February 2007. According to Billboard, WMG had continued to keep music with Last.fm "on a month-to-month basis" after the original deal lapsed. Unlike paid subscription-based services, Last.fm and other free services offer consumers music without charge, and are ad-supported. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace will soon be starting it's own similar service, which will tap into the social networking site's large user base.

Billboard also reports that WMG had grown "disenchanted with Last.fm's compensation rates" after comparing the rates to other services like the forthcoming MySpace Music. In addition, WMG "owns equity stakes in MySpace Music" and "has been frustrated by Last.fm's failure to proceed with its plans to launch a music subscription service." Paid subscription services have been being pushed by the music labels over other sites and stores like Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes Store because they offer better profits for the labels. Mobile phone services have started to tap into this very service, offering consumers music and players on new phones developed for that very purpose.

Web 2.0 takes it on the chin

For some time there has been an uneasy feeling that Web 2.0 companies were having trouble making money. A number of the companies are private and not much is said about how their financials work. Digg.com does not issue quarterly statements.

But some of the new age companies like MySpace, which was bought by News Corp (NYSE: NWS) and YouTube, which was bought by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), have enough of their financials available for Wall Street to get an idea of what is going on.

Based on comments from Google and News Corp, their huge Web 2.0 sites are not big money-makers. MySpace does well under $1 billion in annual revenue. Its smaller rival, Facebook, was recently valued at $15 billion. That number now looks very high.

According to the FT, "The shortage of revenue among social networks, blogs and other "social media" sites that put user-generated content and communications at their core has persisted despite more than four years of experimentation aimed at turning such sites into money-makers."

Facebook, YouTube and MySpace may draw tens of millions of visitors each month, but they can't make a dime. Marketers are not interested in amateur video and postings from people who spend 20 hours a day on PCs and are afraid to leave their homes.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

MySpace wins $230 million anti-spam case - but don't get too excited

It's pretty rare that a victory in a $230 million lawsuit is only a moral victory, but Myspace, which is owned by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), has won just such a case.

The company sued Sanford Wallace and Walter Rines for spamming the social networking site's users with phishing schemes and links to websites offering merchandise for sale or paid advertising. A federal judge in Los Angeles ruled in favor of MySpace after the con-men failed to show up for a hearing.

Why are the damages so high? CAN-SPAM, a 2003 law, entitled providers to $100 in damages for every spam message sent -- and the amount triples when the spam is sent "willfully and knowingly."

Perhaps this will send a message to would-be spammers that they shouldn't mess with MySpace. But the spammers are nowhere to be found, and it's hard to imagine that they have anything like $230 million to pay the judgment, or even the $4.7 million in attorneys fees that the judge awarded MySpace.

Battle of the Brands: MySpace vs. Facebook

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

While I won't claim the title of Most Hip Person on the planet, I do have a fair bit of "new media" credibility. And I think it should be instructive that I've finally embraced (or at least given a friendly pat on the back to) Facebook, whereas News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace continues to horrify. Where Facebook pokes, MySpace cackles wickedly; where Facebook exposes me to unwelcome questions from first grade classmates, MySpace exposes your children to unwelcome advances from questionable adults. Facebook is silly; MySpace is spooky.

The two social networking sites sprung up at about the same time, but focused on vastly different niches. Facebook was originally meant to monopolize electronically on the popularity of the "Freshman Facebook," a publication put together by most colleges displaying the faces of the new students and immediately hoarded by upperclassman hoping to find their one true love (at least for tonight). Why not bring the desirability of fresh faces to a much wider audience? At first the network was limited to college students, but soon the barely legal founder was pitching his product at a bigger market. And then my boss asked me to join and the rest is writing on my wall.

MySpace, on the other hand, was initially marketed to indie bands (although it wasn't meant to be a niche, its developers were active in the LA music scene and thought that would be a great way to attract other users) as a way to spread the musical love and relieve struggling artists of the need to sink money into building a website. The concept was a virtuous circle -- musicians attract fans, fans attract musicians, and so on forever.

Now musicians are still on MySpace, and college students are still on Facebook, but while Facebook seems to have (if not transcended at least) risen above its origins to attract "networks" and "groups" whose affinity ranges from a common employer to a favorite politician or social cause; MySpace has sputtered, devolving ever more into awful allegations and truths. Pedophiles are reported to find victims through their MySpace pages, and the site is notorious for cyberbullying (scary!). On the other hand, there is a big kerfuffle over Scrabble on Facebook (silly!).

I reluctantly set up an account on FaceBook several months ago, and now it's moderately interesting as a way to reconnect with friends from 1st grade, and occasionally peek in on the lives of my college and business school classmates. It occasionally bugs me with its "pokes" and "candy corn" (what the heck?) but it's not riddled with often obscene and sometimes frightening content, as is MySpace; the space that's not mine, at all.

Vote in our poll for MySpace or Facebook as your preferred brand, and let us know in the comments why you love it.

Yahoo! (YHOO) down to $22

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) shares traded at $29.70 after hours Friday as it appeared that a buyout deal from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was likely. Now that Microsoft has walked away after offering $33, where does the Yahoo! stock price go?

Probably to about $22. Here are the reasons why:

1. Yahoo! traded at $19 the week before the offer.

2. Yahoo!'s earnings for Q1 were only modest. So were its forecasts. No one on Wall Street believes the company's aggressive three-year projections. This actually puts some downward pressure on the stock.

3. Microsoft may come back. Their new offer, probably several weeks off, if they make one, will almost certainly be below its initial $31 price point because Yahoo!'s shares will have fallen. A new MSFT offer will probably be in the $25 to $27 dollar range. This should give the stock some support.

4. Yahoo! could outsource some of its search functions to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and potentially save hundreds of million of dollars in personnel. Google does a better job of making money from search ads, so a transaction with the search company could also improve revenue. This should help keep Yahoo!'s share price from collapsing. There is a chance the the federal government would view a deal between the two largest search companies as anti-competitive.

5. There is still a chance the Yahoo! could do a transaction with News Corp (NYSE: NWS) for MySpace or Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) for AOL. It is tough to handicap what this would do to the Yahoo! shares.

Look for the Yahoo stock to settle at $22 in the next week.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Newspaper wrap-up: New 3G BlackBerry may be delayed until August

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is going to let outside developers create applications across its network of sites, the New York Times contended. The search engine is also going to combine its online services under the social profile concept in an attempt to allow its users to replicate the social experience that social networks like News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) MySpace and Facebook have made so popular.
WEB SITES:
  • Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) will reportedly delay the launch of its new hotly anticipated 3G BlackBerry phone, Fortune reported, which the company is developing for AT&T Inc (NYSE: T). The phone, originally supposed to be launched in June, may not be released until as late as August, inside sources said.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-82.1511,106.08
NASDAQ-18.292,240.75
S&P 500-11.481,225.35

Last updated: September 05, 2008: 10:24 AM

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